18 September 2011

Rare, outlier event

According to Nasim Taleb, Mediocristan is the world of predictable outcomes where the weight of the outlier does not substantially alter the result; Extremistan is the world of rare events where the weight of the outlier dominates the result. 
History jumps, it does not crawl. History is affected by the rare, outlier event. 
What sheviit/shemitta does is superimpose a regular variation in the historical process to move the society from Extremistan to Mediocristan. 

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